joining me now, nbc's luke russert who covers capitol hill and jonathan capehart, political writer for "washington post" and msnbc contributor. luke, are they going to have the votes in the end or not? >> most likely not. 60 is a very steep hill for this. the reason why, a lot of those republican senators who voted for this to move forward on cloture have now backtracked. what's interesting, though, i think that's really happened here is two things. everyone's attention shifted to boston, to the pr push that the gun control lobby that they would have is not the same. the newtown families aren't registers as much today as they would have had that tragedy in boston not occurred. number two, boehner in the house put out a pretty declarative statement last week. we're going to water down whatever comes out of the senate. if you're a republican senator, if you're a red state democrat, why go out on a limb for this when the house is probably going to sit on it? >> harry reid, i mean, he knows when he's got the votes and when he doesn't. why would he proceed with this? i mean, i wonder, is th